Valinda, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

344
FXUS66 KLOX 061143
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
343 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...06/338 AM.

A cool down is expected for today as an upper-level trough of low
pressure brushes the area. Limited instability may produce a few
showers over the mountains through this evening. Offshore flow
will reestablish on the back side of the trough and bring warmer
temperatures over the weekend. Better cooling is expected for
next week as onshore flow returns. A storm system could affect
the region with a chance of light rain between Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...06/340 AM.

The latest surface pressure gradients show a reversal of the flow
pattern taking place as the flow regime switches from an offshore
flow regime to an onshore flow regime. The reversal is brought to
us by an upper-level trough about 300 miles west of Point
Conception. Weak onshore pressure gradients have established at
this hour, and in the breaks of the middle and high level cloud
shield, typical coastal stratus can be seen developing and
streaming into the coastal areas this morning.

While a mix of cloud heights can be seen on the latest GOES-W
nighttime microphysics RGB imagery, a deep layer of drier air
remains in the lowest levels of the atmosphere over most of the
area. In fact, radar echoes can be seen the latest radar mosaic,
but the bulk of the rain is likely only falling as sprinkles this
morning. 850 mb mixing ratios are pretty low this morning, but the
air mass should moisten through the day and bring the possibility
of shower activity, especially over the mountains. High-
resolution multi-model ensemble members favor showers developing
over the Ventura and Santa Barbara County mountains this afternoon
and evening. Slight chance PoPs have been added to the forecast,
but it should be noted that there is a a very slight chance of
thunderstorms over the same area. NAM-WRF model soundings over the
region advertise a favorable profile for thunderstorms with some
CAPE values and some divergence aloft to help showers grow. Lifted
index values in the model soundings turn negative during the late
afternoon and K-index values approach the mid 30s. The latest SPC
Day 1 outlook highlights an area over the northern Ventura County
and the backcountry region of Santa Barbara County. Given the dry
layer in place and the cutoff nature of the trough, it is not a
clear cut situation. If thunderstorms do develop, there is
concern placed with gusty outflow winds and dry lightning due to
the inverted-v sounding profiles, especially if any storms drift
off the mountains into the Santa Ynez Valley or the South Coast of
Santa Barbara County.

Cooler temperatures are expected today, but offshore flow pattern
will reestablish as the trough digs farther to the south and the
region enters the north to northeast sector of the trough. With
the counterclockwise circulation around the trough, offshore flow
would be prevalent and develop a warmer and drier air mass once
again. Advisory level winds cannot be ruled over the weekend, but
the latest model solutions are starting to hint at Sundowner
winds over Santa Barbara County on Saturday evening and again
Sunday evening.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...06/342 AM.

The pattern should shift back to onshore on Monday as a storm
system approach the region. The latest forecast ensembles indicate
a majority of the solutions with rain across the region between
Tuesday and Wednesday. Amounts look to be light to moderate at
best. Ensemble means range between 0.25 and 0.50 inch, but there
is about a 20 percent chance that amounts could be higher or
lower than those values. There are still some solutions with no
rain at all. If one factors in the deterministic solutions of the
GFS and pattern recognition, the forecast ensemble precipitation
means seem reasonable. 850 mb mixing ratios are on the drier side
between 4 and 6 g/kg and there is a limited warm air advective
pattern component inhibiting orographic lift at this point. The
forecast goes with WPC values for QPF for now and falls inline
goes with NBM values for the current time, but it should be noted
that there is likely a locally higher chance of precipitation and
higher amounts along the south and southwest facing slopes of the
mountains.

A warming trend will likely develop between Thursday and Friday,
then a pair of storms looks to move into the region over next
weekend and into the third week of February. The second storm
system, likely moving over the region between 14th and 15th could
end up being the heavier storm system. It does possess some colder
air aloft and 850 mb temperatures means drop to near zero, hinting
at the possibilities of more instability. There is remains high
confidence in much cooler temperatures during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...06/1141Z.

At 0800Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 feet deeps with an
inversion to 2700 feet with a temperature of 17 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

For remaining sites, low to moderate confidence in flight cats
through 18Z, then high confidence in VFR conds thereafter. High
clouds are blocking any view of low clouds, and the high clouds
may inhibit the formation of a solid stratus deck, leading to
frequent flight cat changes. Min flight cat may be off by one
cat.

No significant wind issues anticipated. Less than 10% chance for
an isolated shower and lightning strike anywhere, highest over
mountains Friday afternoon.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in minimum flight cat through 18Z. 30%
chance for no cigs tonight, but moderate confidence in 007-012
being lowest cig height. High confidence in VFR conds after 18Z.
30% chance for east wind component over 6-8 kt through 19Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in VFR conds prevailing. 20% chance
for IFR-MVFR conds thru 18Z. 5-10% chance for cigs 002-005. High
confidence in VFR conds after 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...06/212 AM.

A long period west swell will continue to build into the region
today. Seas are expected to reach 10-12 feet across the inner waters
along the Central Coast and the outer waters from Point Piedras
south to San Nicolas Island. Large seas will begin to decrease
Saturday, but northwest winds will increase at the same time.
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds in the 20-30 knots range will be
common across the Outer Waters and along the Central Coast into at
least early next week. There is a 40-60% chance for low end Gale
Force winds (35-40 knots) during this timeframe, highest chances
Sunday.

West to northwest winds will make their way into the waters south
of Point Conception Saturday and Sunday afternoon, although
likely staying below SCA levels, except for localized gusts to 25
knots. Offshore flow will bring 15-25 knot winds to nearshore
areas from Ventura to Santa Monica late Saturday through Monday
afternoon, with strongest winds likely along the Malibu Coast late
Saturday through Sunday early afternoon.

Choppy waves will be the result of the increase in winds and
ocean conditions will remain hazardous into at least Monday.

Patchy dense fog will be tucked underneath the cover of high
clouds through late this morning, and there is a moderate chance
for dense fog to continue through at least Saturday morning.

&&

.BEACHES...06/128 AM.

A long period west swell will continue to build across the coastal
waters today, resulting in high surf focused across west facing
beaches through Saturday night. Elevated surf will likely continue
into next week.

Refer to the SRFLOX and CFWLOX products for more details on the
High Surf Advisories along the coast.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Saturday for
      zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for
      zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM
      PST Monday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...BL
BEACHES...BL
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox